Your Quick-Start Betting and Trading Guide for the Italy’s Serie A – Part 1
Football lovers of a particular vintage will have fond memories of Serie A in the 1990s. Back then, it was the world’s greatest football league. However, it was more synonymous with exceptional defence than exhilarating attacking football.
One memorable example was the 1993/94 season, which saw AC Milan win the title, despite scoring just 36 goals in 34 league matches! Oddly enough, Milan destroyed Barcelona 4-0 in that season’s European Cup final!
Those who have seldom watched Italian football since those heady days possibly assume that it still has the same emphasis on defence as before. As fans of teams like Atalanta and Inter Milan will tell you, if you haven’t watched Serie A lately, you’re missing out! In this guide, we check out some data, which shows that the Italian league is not shy of goals.
No Impact on Home Advantage
It is early days, but already it seems as if the lack of crowds is not hurting home performance. Indeed, last season, after early issues, the win percentage of home sides in Italy increased towards the end of the campaign.
It seems as if most teams are capable of pulling a home win out of the bag. Last season, only six out of the 20 Serie A sides managed a home win rate of over 50%. However, 13 of them won at least one-third of their home games. Away from home, six teams won more than half of their away games too.
Interestingly, five teams won more than half of their home and away games, a clear suggestion that they were strong overall. The sides were:
- Inter Milan
- AS Roma
Lazio finished in fourth place with 78 points, just five behind Juventus, who won the league for the ninth consecutive year.
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Serie A Loves Goals !!
For many football fans, the English Premier League is the king of thrills, spills, excitement, and goals. Would you be surprised if I told you that Serie A matches had an average of 3.04 goals a game last season? The English Premier League had 2.72 in comparison. This means there were approximately 120 more goals in Italy than in England last season.
Here is the goal breakdown of match goals from last season:
- Over 1.5: 82% of games
- Over 2.5: 63% of games
- Over 3.5: 34% of games
An incredible seven teams were involved in over 2.5 goals in at least 71% of their games. Atalanta have rightly gained plaudits for their attacking style, but 79% of Genoa’s games had 3+ goals last season. Going back to Atalanta, 53% of their games last season had over 3.5 goals, and 37% had over 4.5! However, 76% of Lecce’s games had more 4+ match goals.
Yet you will struggle to match Atalanta’s combined total of 144 goals in their 38 games; that’s 3.79 per match on average. The brilliant Bergamo team scored a record 98 league goals last season.
Lecce’s games had 137 goals, though they conceded 85, which is probably why they got relegated.
This season, Atalanta have already managed 13 goals in three matches and conceded 5. Inter Milan have scored 10 and conceded 6. Both teams are regularly involved in goalfests, and it doesn’t seem to matter if they are home or away.
Slow Starts… Solid Finishes
Last season’s Serie A was perfect for traders with patience as it brought up the ideal trading conditions. Games often started slowly before the goals began to flow before half time. Just 10% of goals were scored in the opening 15 minutes. Just 26% were scored after 30 minutes.
The next three 15-minute segments had between 17% and 18% of total goals, followed by 21% of the final quarter-hour plus stoppage time. As a result, you could have made money by waiting a little while before getting involved in matches.
Almost 76% of games had at least one first-half goal, and 39% had at least two goals. Incidentally, 25% of matches this season have had at least three first-half goals! This is double the 10-year average.
Just over 5% of games were scoreless last season, so laying the draw to cash out after a goal was a reliable trading option.
Predictology members can see an enormous array of data at a glance, such as the percentage of home wins, away wins, and draws in a variety of leagues. The above screenshot relates to the English Premier League.
Which Teams Should I Watch?
It is very early days this season, but Atalanta have scored 77% of their goals in the first half. Inter have scored 60% of their goals in the first half.
In terms of last season, Fiorentina were a team to watch late on. Over 27% of goals in their matches came in the final 15 minutes. They scored 14 and conceded 13 in this spell. This is especially noteworthy because they were among the least exciting teams in the league with only 99 total goals in their games. This season, 4 of the 11 goals in their games have come late on.
Udinese are another team with low scoring games, yet almost 30% of goals in their games came late on. They scored and conceded the same amount of goals in this timeframe.
Unsurprisingly, Roma, Atalanta, Juventus, and Inter are all very strong in the final 15 minutes of the first half. Back them to lead at HT after 30 minutes if the game is a draw at that stage.
One final interesting trend: Back AC Milan to score in the first 15 minutes after half time. Last season, they scored 18 of their 69 league goals between 46-60 minutes and conceded just 8 of their 36 league goals during that spell. This season, they have scored 3 of their 7 goals during this period so far.
Serie A – Summary
- Atalanta continue to be the team for match goals as a blistering start to the season shows.
- Inter Milan looks extremely strong in attack but continues to leak goals.
- Serie A games begin slowly before exploding into life after 20 or so minutes.
- Atalanta have been fast starters this season, as have Inter Milan.
- Look at Fiorentina and Udinese games for late drama.
- Back last season’s top 4 to score late in the first half.
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