How To Refine A Betting Strategy
A reality check on betting strategies and how to find one that works for you
For many, the belief is that if they can just find one betting system or strategy that works, they will be set. Just one is all they need.
The reality though is different.
What that person should be asking themselves is what betting strategy is best suited to my financial situation, betting style, risk profile and financial situation.
It is actually not that hard to find a ‘winning approach’. In fact, there are many strategies available, for free, in the public domain that deliver a ‘net profit’. Some are seemingly incredibly easy to follow, with a few straightforward rules.
What is often not considered though, is what is actually involved in following said strategy, the journey to implementing a real winning strategy.
What we are referring to is the experience, the journey towards achieving the result.
So, before you rejoice in finding what might be a free, profitable, and easy to follow method, read on.
‘What we are about to look at affects pretty much every system or method to some degree’.
I have selected that we have developed in the Predictology Platform
- 7 Seasons
- 713 Bets
- 335 Winners
- £978.72 profit staking 2% on a £1,000 bank
- 6% ROI
Whilst the headline result from this system is impressive the ‘inner detail’ of the journey will reveal some potentially disturbing but inescapable facts. We are not insinuating anything sinister, in fact the issues we are talking about effects every system or method to some degree.
For many of us, betting has that built-in level of a blind and enthusiastic expectation of winning. Of being able to make it as a successful punter.
Unfortunately, these expectations and goals often scope beyond reality. There is nothing wrong with you having hopes and dreams. However, the simple fact is that they are far more likely to materialise if they are grounded in logic and if you accept mathematical realities.
Further, being realistic about one’s chances will result in far less disappointment and make punting a more positive experience.
Let’s examine the profitability and sustainability of the above system for the benefit of those who would like to take these types of methods onboard and use them in their betting.
The period covered is seven seasons and roughly 100 bets a season.
If we assumed a £10,000 bank and demonstrate realistic outcomes which can be scaled up or down based on the reader’s own personal financial situation.
Finally, our bets are assumed to be based on a 2% stake of our bank, adjusted up or down as the bank level increases or decreases.
The obvious question is when analysing system performance is, did we make enough money?
Most punters would probably find it hard to face the reality that with a £10,000 bank the most you could win using a profitable system over 7 year period is around £4,893.60.
It’s certainly nothing to sneeze at but nowhere enough to turn professional and quit your job. There is not enough turnover and even if you increase your stake 10-fold, and if you can consistently get set, £6,990 per year is still quite low for living purposes.
A method like this would certainly be suitable as part of a suite of systems which is why we let Predictology members build as many strategies as they wish within their account, it would provide enough bets to produce a profit that in turn meets your needs.
But on it’s own it is unlikely to be sustainable enough for our sole objective.
For many, the outcomes above could be more than satisfactory for a bit extra cash on the side. The practical problem is that betting those selections would require you to never miss a bet. That could be a problem if you have planned holidays or other events in your life, or simply if you have a life.
But, assuming you could manage that, there is then the question of endurance. To be able to endure the system’s ups and downs, it is necessary to understand its behaviour and determine if in fact you can indeed sustain the stress it places on you as a punter to reap the projected benefits.
Most punters focus only on the result and they miss a critical factor of the system; it’s winning dynamic.
This determines the systems sustainability, as it applies to your ability to continue with it during the inescapable bad runs.
Sadly, most punters never see the guts of the system until the reality hits them square between the eyes. If you assume that you would receive a steady supply of tax-free money with a profitable system, you would be GREATLY mistaken.
Running a simple betting analysis quickly reveals some startling realities:
- Drawdown of 28.04 points
- Max Bank Drawdown: £5,608
- Every 1,000 bets you’d lose up to 11 in a row
So you could enjoy nice winning runs of up to 8, but would you have the fortitude to continue betting if the bank had dropped by more than 50% or you just suffered eleven losing bets in a row?
Could you keep sustaining a system that has to wait more than one season (a year) before your betting bank reaches a new high?
“The Feel-Like-A-Winner indicator is probably the easiest way to present the reality of how a system performs in plain terms”. You don’t need a Ph.D. in mathematics, pie charts or graphs to understand it, and together with the drawdown break-down, it is a simple yet effective way to evaluate the true performance of a system. While a system may be in profit compared to its starting bank, most punters will fail to deal with the fact that they will feel like they are losing (using the system under review) around 97.4% of the time, as their punting Bank will be at a lower level compared to its previous high.
The questions you need to ask yourself is, will you be able to handle waiting 365 days or more between new bank highs? Can you handle clawing your way back only to be smacked down again? And then front up for perhaps another 175 days wait before you again experience that winning feeling?
Remember, the whole period is 7 years in total.
Can you handle the £5,608 (actual pounds) bank drawdown? Will you miss a crucial set of winning bets because you have family commitments? I guess you get the picture now.
It is also worth remembering that making decisions about a system based on a system test, where you have the foresight of the total outcome is far easier to absorb than going through the experience described above.
Having examined the system in the above manner, we can say that it is plausible that you could win with it. The difficulties presented in this article may be one of the reasons why the angles used in this system remain ‘undervalued’ by the market; not because the market can’t find these pockets of profit, that’s the easier part (assuming you have an accurate database, like Predictology, upon which to research and identify these market weaknesses).
More likely, these are like honey traps that leave most of their unprepared users disillusioned; if not broke as they go off the rails.
Punters that play the long game necessary for the rewards to materialise, will find these and others as the gifts that keep on giving. These punters have the right mindset and access to right tools that can dissect a system in such a manner that have the propensity to reveal it’s dynamic. This type of research will show them how to take advantage of these pockets of gold and forewarn them about any relevant pitfalls.
The tools mentioned above are available in the Predictology database and as punters, we use them on daily basis; as do many of our other members. Our success comes from providing our clients with real-world information, knowledge, and the actual tools that we ourselves use. The above advice is certainly not the enthusiastic ‘feel good’ kind and whilst we accept that, the sobering point we are trying to make is that whatever your hopes are and how you feel about information won’t change what happens.
Financial success from betting is only achieved by facing the inescapable Realities of Punting.