A Football Betting System That Really Works? | Predictology

 

Bets that never fail – Can you really find a football betting system that works?

Juventus Betting System – How To Make Money Betting On Juventus

One of the first questions we get asked by anyone interested in Predictology is “can I really build a betting system that actually makes money?” and our answer is always the same:

“Yes and it depends….”

The yes part is easy – the team at Predictology have personally built many profitable systems and strategies. An example of this is our popular playbook series which takes every new member of Predictology on a ten-week course where we show real, live profitable strategies and systems that members can use and follow in their own accounts. (would you like to experience a 7-day free trial of Predictology? You can do so here)

As for ‘depends’ – it really does depend on what your expectations are…

If you are looking for the ‘one ring to rule them all’ type system, where once you have found the system you can simply sit back and retire, you are likely to be a disappointed. For starters, having all of your eggs in one basket (system) is a recipe for disaster. Trends and market forces change and you need to be able to adapt and tweak over the years ahead – also no strategy is linear, so it is always better on the wallet and heart to have multiple strategies on the go so that you can cover for the a downswing on one system before it corrects again later.

This is not to say that you can’t find excitingly profitable systems that deliver many, many units profit per season. They definitely exist because we have seen them – in fact, we know of at least three tipsters who generate all of their selections successfully (and profitably) solely from the Predictology platform, and have done for several years.

That said, for all new and prospective members of Predictology we always advise to set lower expectations initially and focus on something we call micro betting systems, just until you get up and running. A training exercise of sorts.

One of the many opportunities provided by the Predictology platform is the ability to develop and create successful micro betting systems (learn more about this concept here). When used correctly and in conjunction with other micro betting strategies, they can prove incredibly powerful…and profitable.

A bet that (almost) never fails?

One of our favourite and best examples of a successful micro betting strategy involves the Italian giants, Juventus. Incredibly it wins over 90% of the time and delivers an incredible return on investment.

At the time of writing, Juventus have won the last six Italian titles, and are right in the mix with Napoli for a record breaking seventh consecutive Scudetto.

So it would be safe to assume that Juve will, on average, win a very high proportion of their games.

And it would normally also be safe to assume that the odds available on a Juventus win would reflect this and be very short indeed. By using Predictology, we can see that the average price available for a Juventus win at home is actually 1.41 – for a team with a record like this, we would expect a price closer to 1.20.

The number of ‘big’ clubs in Italy – AC Milan, Inter, Napoli, Roma, Lazio – seems to ensure that, on average, the Juventus home win price is a little higher than in other leagues.

If we take Celtic for example, we can see their home win price is 1.26, it is is therefore not really profitable to bet into on the metric alone.

Celtic home wins over the the last five seasons:

League Season Profit ROI Win % Odds
Total Total 0.29 0.3% 79.3% 1.26
Sco. Premiership 2013/14 1.76 +9.3% 84.2 1.31
Sco. Premiership 2014/15 0.27 +1.4% 78.9 1.28
Sco. Premiership 2015/16 -1.15 -6.1% 73.7 1.25
Sco. Premiership 2016/17 2.06 +10.8% 89.5 1.25
Sco. Premiership 2017/18 -2.65 -24.1% 63.6 1.21

In another example, we can take a look at the German Giants, Bayern Munich:

League Season Profit ROI Win % Odds
Total Total 0.79 1.0% 84.2% 1.21
Ger. Bundesliga I 2013/14 0.30 +1.8% 88.2 1.18
Ger. Bundesliga I 2014/15 -0.08 -0.5% 82.4 1.23
Ger. Bundesliga I 2015/16 0.90 +5.3% 88.2 1.21
Ger. Bundesliga I 2016/17 -0.83 -4.9% 76.5 1.24
Ger. Bundesliga I 2017/18 0.50 +6.3% 87.5 1.21

As with Celtic, we see a pretty similar story. Short prices and near break-even prices. So let’s return to Juventus, how does their home record look over the last five seasons:

League Season Profit ROI Win % Odds
Total Total 22.34 26.0% 89.5% 1.41
Ita. Serie A 2013/14 6.49 +34.2% 100.0 1.34
Ita. Serie A 2014/15 5.17 +27.2% 84.2 1.51
Ita. Serie A 2015/16 4.68 +24.6% 84.2 1.45
Ita. Serie A 2016/17 5.65 +29.7% 94.7 1.38
Ita. Serie A 2017/18 0.35 +3.5% 80.0 1.36

A big big difference to our examples with Celtic, and Bayern. Now we have the makings of a very interesting micro betting strategy. And what a beautiful linear profit graph it gives us – just what we like to see

You could almost say that you are ‘guaranteed’ to make money betting on Juventus at home!

  • 22.34 units profit over the last five seasons
  • Win rate of 89.50%
  • ROI of 26.4%
  • With average odds of around 1.41

Impressive stuff and we could stop there and be happy. But we want to take this opportunity to consider a couple more angles:

  • Betting Away
  • Asian Handicaps

Backing Juventus to win away from home:

League Season Profit ROI Win % Odds
Total Total 12.63 14.7% 65.1% 1.85
Ita. Serie A 2013/14 4.54 +23.9% 73.7 1.78
Ita. Serie A 2014/15 1.95 +10.3% 52.6 1.91
Ita. Serie A 2015/16 3.78 +19.9% 68.4 1.97
Ita. Serie A 2016/17 -2.10 -11.1% 57.9 1.79
Ita. Serie A 2017/18 4.46 +44.6% 80.0 1.78

Incredibly you would also make money backing Juventus away from home. The overall numbers aren’t quite as exciting and the profit line is not quite as smooth, but used as basis to analyse game-by-game or if you were to add some additional filters on top, you could develop this into another successful micro betting strategy.

Now the one I really wanted to look at was the Asian Handicap markets. Can we take our knowledge about Juventus’ home form and see if they are also beating the handicap on a regular basis and can therefore provide us with higher odds and margins?

Lets take a look…

Backing Juventus to beat the Asian Handicap at home

League Season Profit ROI Win % Odds
Total Total 16.00 18.6% 55.8% 1.75
Ita. Serie A 2013/14 0.62 +3.3% 53.3 1.57
Ita. Serie A 2014/15 2.86 +15.1% 61.1 1.93
Ita. Serie A 2015/16 3.99 +21.0% 64.7 1.78
Ita. Serie A 2016/17 8.16 +43.0% 75.0 1.59
Ita. Serie A 2017/18 0.37 +3.7% 60.0 1.97

So as suspected, taking the Asian Handicap markets give us a profitable approach as well. However, despite our efforts we have been unable to top the returns delivered by simply back Juventus to win at home – lower odds but the returns are greater and the profit lines more steady.

So we can confidently say that we have a successful micro betting strategy and depending on your style and betting tastes, we have three different approaches we can take to profit from it.

So, what have we learned so far?

  • Backing Juventus win at home delivers steady profit and strong ROI
  • They consistently beat the match handicap – but the returns are greater on the win market
  • You can also profit from backing Juventus away from home but the returns are lower and a bit up and down over five seasons
  • We’d recommend using the away model as a base and then either add additional filters or conduct your own research on top to identify the right bets

Predictology

We have created an incredibly powerful new betting platform which gives you all the tools you need to create your very own football betting systems!

By becoming a member of Predictology you get instant access to the following:

  • Over 200,000 matches and growing…
  • 22 leagues covering 10+ seasons… and we are adding more leagues all the time
  • Run and test systems in seconds with our custom built server
  • Assess over 100 variables, criteria to build the perfect betting system
  • Auto bet alerts – one email per day with all of your selections from all of your systems
  • 1-click betting – place your bets straight from the Predictology platform
  • A full video guide series which will make you a system building expert in not time at all
  • Three custom rating models for you to use
  • Value tracker reports – we will tell you the matches the bookies have priced wrong every week in one simple report
  • 10 week playbook which shares some of our own most pro table betting systems
  • And much, much more

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *