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MLS 2022 Week 5 | MLS Betting Tips

Kris Brown – AKA MLS Card Guy – is our resident serious Major League Soccer expert.

Kris’s passion for the MLS really took off during the 2018 season in which he was a part of the team at DC United that opened Audi Field and welcomed Wayne Rooney to the MLS. He is now in his second season with the Pittsburgh Riverhounds of the USL. Kris likes to follow D.C United, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Atlanta.

 

His favorite player in the MLS is Luciano Acosta, but past favorites include Clint Dempsey and Kevin Paredes. The most iconic game he attended came at Audi field against Orlando in 2018, Wayne Rooney famously chased down an Orlando player who was racing towards an open DC goal, expertly tackled the ball away to save the draw, then unleashed a laser from midfield that Acosta headed in to complete the hat trick and seal the win.

 

 

If you missed our 2022 MLS Season guide you can still read it here. 

The international break is over and we are on to matchday number 5 (hooray!).

A few quick notes before we really get into the meat of the article for today.

The CONCACAF CHAMPIONS LEAGUE rages on, as we lost New England and Montreal in the Quarterfinals but Seattle and NYCFC live to fight on into the Semi where they will face each other. Their game is on Wednesday next week, so I don’t anticipate a whole lot of rotation this week. The exception to that may be the guys coming off of international duty for each team. They may want to rest them after playing multiple matches in the last week.

Additionally, There are some early trends we need to keep in mind. If you head over to the beautiful stats page found here  you can see the BTTS numbers are way down this season compared to previous years. There isn’t really anything to explain that change in the numbers (pace of play isn’t significantly different) so we should expect to see some regression to the mean over the course of the rest of this season (but that may be a month or two away).

Further, you can take a look at the total goals by month chart to see something else. Typically for the first month teams start off scoring pretty well (defences haven’t gotten on the same page) then the scoring comes down (slightly) for month two before bottoming out in month three. Then by June the offences start to figure things out on their own and the scoring rate goes way up. Right now we are expecting slightly lower totals so look for games featuring poor attacking lineups to bet the under.

Now onto the weekends analysis and picks:

 

MLS Betting Tips – Week 5

 

 

MLS Betting – Game Week 5 Preview

 

New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls

The international break is the perfect time to hit the reset button for Bruce Arena and co. The Early season struggles were something that we expected somewhat because of the havoc of the CONCACAF CHAMPIONS LEAGUE. Now, most of the team has had two weeks off to fully recover. It’s time to start seeing how good this Revolution team is in 2022. The Red Bulls provide the perfect test, having whipped a few poor teams and succumbed to a few good teams. We will get to see exactly which camp New England falls into this season. Struggles aside, there is still a ton of talent on this Revolution team. I think they will take care of business at home for the even money cover.

 

Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC

You knew I was going to pick this game right? It’s a really huge number for Charlotte coming off two huge wins. They have finally got some momentum going BUT… Philly is quietly doing Philly things, they have impressive wins at Yankee Stadium (NYCFC) where absolutely nobody wins, and at Montreal despite a red card. It’s a big number for a reason this is still the Philadelphia Union at Subaru Park facing an expansion team.

 

 

MLS Betting – Over 2.5 Goals Betting Odds

 

 Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt Lake

I am actually going against our model for once on this one. Colorado have responded magnificently since the CCL debacle beating quality (albeit shorthanded) Atlanta and SKC in back to back weeks before a point on the road in Houston. Mainly though I am concerned about RSL’s injury list. It’s getting to the point where they may not even have a bench if everyone is actually out. Check lineups before this match, but I am likely going to take Colorado at home in a derby game against a banged up RSL.

 

 

 

Inter Miami vs Houston Dynamo

Another really interesting trend in the league is the relative lack of draws this season. That has to regress to the mean at some point and this just has draw written all over it. Two franchises that desperately need a win, but are so bad that neither will actually get the win. I actually lean Dynamo slightly if there is a winner because they have been able to do some nice things this season and they are least taking steps in the right direction. Miami is an expansion team for all intents and purposes but without all the extra resources expansion teams get. I still think Phil Neville is the first manager to be sacked this season. A loss to the Dynamo would put him in some serious trouble.

 

 

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MLS Card Guy will be back at regular intervals throughout the MLS season and if you wanting more of Kris’s insights, you can check out his YouTube channel here and his Patreon here.

 

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