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Kris Brown – AKA MLS Card Guy – is our resident serious Major League Soccer expert.
Kris’s passion for the MLS really took off during the 2018 season in which he was a part of the team at DC United that opened Audi Field and welcomed Wayne Rooney to the MLS. He is now in his second season with the Pittsburgh Riverhounds of the USL. Kris likes to follow D.C United, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Atlanta.
His favorite player in the MLS is Luciano Acosta, but past favorites include Clint Dempsey and Kevin Paredes. The most iconic game he attended came at Audi field against Orlando in 2018, Wayne Rooney famously chased down an Orlando player who was racing towards an open DC goal, expertly tackled the ball away to save the draw, then unleashed a laser from midfield that Acosta headed in to complete the hat trick and seal the win.
If you missed our 2022 MLS Season guide you can still read it here.
Notes on this week: Some of you may know I co-host an MLS focused Sorare podcast called Sorare in the States. This week, our very own Jon (founder, creator, and all-around Predictology genius) will be our guest. We will be getting into some bigger picture stuff this week on the show as well as diving into some of the analytics. The Podcast is generally out Monday morning at midnight and can be heard wherever you listen to podcasts (Apple, Spotify, Google)
Also you may be aware that this past midweek we saw the US Open Cup round 3 being played, the first round that has MLS teams participating, with Austin, Chicago, RSL and Columbus all bowed out of the competition to lower division teams.
For our purposes, the important thing to know is who went to extra time. To my knowledge, Chicago, Charlotte, Austin, and Cincinnati were required to play an extra half an hour (for Chicago penalties were also required). Its worth factoring this into our analysis and give these teams slight downgrades, whereas teams like Toronto and New England got to fully rest this week, while even teams like Atlanta and LAFC rolled to easy victories and got to save some of the starters legs.
Last note: CCL Final leg 1 is next week, expect some rotation from Seattle (maybe not the entire team like the last game) as they may let the starters play 60 min or so. Maybe you will just have to read further down for more info about this one. Here we go, now some actual games.
MLS Betting Tips – Week 8
MLS Betting – Game Week 8 Preview
DC United vs New England Revolution
If you are interested in this game, check out the podcast this week because there will be a bunch of DC United talk. With the amount of negativity surrounding this firing I would not be surprised at all to see DC come out all guns blazing just like they did in the first half against Austin. Same logic that applied to that one applies to this one as well, getting 2.36 for a team at home against a good not great team, without 2 of its best players is a recipe for success. Honestly, it should have worked out for us last week (We were up 2-0 in the 80th minute for goodness sakes) Let’s double down and see if the interim can take us to the promised land!
Dallas vs Houston
I love the direction that Houston is headed in, and in a rivalry game anything can happen. There still seems to be a talent gap between these two teams though. I like getting the 1.83 number for a better team at home.
MLS Betting – Over 2.5 Goals Betting Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Seattle Sounders
Speaking of fired coaches, I don’t think I have ever seen a worse marriage than Almydea and San Jose. Finally it’s a divorce and the kids are staying with San Jose, and to be honest they have got some pretty talented kids to work with. Montiero and Gregus are dangerous creators, and Ebobisse is on fire in front of goal. Even Marcinkowski is a pretty good goalkeeper by the analytics, they just keep putting him in horrible spots. Hopefully their interim will go away from the “we don’t believe in defence” tactic and San Jose could actually be ok. 2.37 at home against a team looking ahead to CCL? We will take that all day long.
New York City FC vs Toronto
I am absolutely shocked to see a number this low in an MLS game. Particularly, against a team in Toronto that has won 3 of its last 4 including a game against NYCFC. I am willing to admit that I don’t think Toronto is the favorite going to Yankee Stadium, but this is a team that can certainly hold its own. 7.99 is just way too high on Toronto to win, if you want a more reasonable number to hit try a double chance on draw or Toronto to win.
Colorado vs Charlotte
There are so many games I like this week, but I can leave out my Charlotte boys two weeks in a row! Unfortunately for them they had to burn Fuchs, Bender, Rios, and Ortiz just to get through the Greenville Triumph. 120’ of action followed by a cross country plane trip to a team that was resting all week? Sorry, Charlotte you will get back on the winning train soon (hopefully), Take Colorado at 1.52
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MLS Card Guy will be back at regular intervals throughout the MLS season and if you wanting more of Kris’s insights, you can check out his YouTube channel here and his Patreon here.
