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Genesis is an expert on all things French football and runs an excellent Twitter channel here. There is a whole lot more to Ligue 1 than simply PSG, Messi, Mbappe and Neymar. It is increasingly becoming a highly entertaining league with a wealth of young and exciting talent.
Each week, Genesis will be sharing his inside knowledge on the happenings within French Football and Ligue 1, so you can be well equipped to spot value betting opportunities each week.
Week 31 – Ligue 1 Betting Tips | French Football Betting
Welcome to GW 31 in Ligue 1 and some a look at some of this week’s interesting fixtures. Last week, I predicted a tight game between Nice and Rennes with Nice perhaps scraping it. It was tight, ending in a 1-1 draw. I said that Nantes would sneak it against Clermont with Ludo Blas and Randal Muani working their magic. That was bang on! I also said that Lyon would make hard work of Angers but eventually win out, Lyon did struggle eventually winning 3-2. Finally, I said that Strasbourg versus Lens would be tight and would likely end in a draw, Strasbourg eventually won 1-0.
Check out our mid-season review of the 2022 Ligue 1 season here
Here are the latest betting odds for Ligue 1 at the time of publishing:
Let’s take a look at this week’s focus games for game week 31.
LORIENT vs ST ETIENNE
As we head towards the end of the season plenty of games have added importance. This is absolutely one of them. Lorient, sat in 16th and St Etienne sat in 18th separated by one point. Lorient have been a mixed bag in their last eight games winning 3, drawing 2 and losing 3. Two of those losses have been heavy defeats, 5-1 to PSG and 4-1 to Lyon. Lorient’s big problem is scoring. They have 25 goals for the whole season, which is the worst in Ligue 1. Last season’s exciting breakouts, Terem Moffi and Armand Lauriente have not been playing well. And a shift in tactics has seen Lorient solidify the midfield at the expense of some of their more creative players. St Etienne, though, do concede their fair share of goals, 1.8 per game on average this season. They are also without captain Mahdi Camara for this game, suspended by the club, after he came to blows with a youth team player in training this week. That’s big. I think this one could be entertaining, with multiple goals. No clean sheets on either side. The odds have Lorient as a decent favourite and that is fair. The fact that Le Fee and Le Goff are available is a major bonus for them and I think they could grab a win here. They need a win here.
Ligue 1 – Both Teams To Score – Betting Odds
BORDEAUX vs METZ
Another basement battle and another important one. No one, not even the disastrous Bordeaux, is cut adrift at the bottom yet. Indeed, these two are equal on points in the last two spots in the table. They are both five points from safety. Bordeaux’s last win was all the way back on January 23rd against Strasbourg, a 4-3 bonanza. And that result is Bordeaux all over. They can score. But they also haemorrhage goals. They have shipped 70 so far this season, the worst in the league by a mile. And, while they do have that scoring potential, they have not actually scored a goal in 4 games. They were heroic in defence against Lille last week to claim a 0-0 draw. They are not yet feeling the new manager ‘bounce’ since Guion’s arrival. Metz are truly abject at the moment too. They have one win in their last 13. Last week they were eviscerated by Rennes 6-1. Their best player and top scorer, right back Fabian Centonze, is still out injured. And their attacking unit is chronically underperforming. Even the usually effervescent Farid Boulaya has seen his form fall off a cliff. The odds have Bordeaux as a huge favourite. I would certainly have them as favourites here. They should win. And I have a feeling there could be a decent amount of goals.
LENS vs NICE
The odds have RC Lens as hot favourite here. I am not sure they should be so heavily favoured. As you will be sick of hearing me say each week, Nice have the best defence in the league (24 conceded), Lens are fading fast. They have now slipped all the way back to 10th place with 12 wins but also 10 losses for the season. Indeed, Lens lost the reverse fixture 2-1 to Nice in December last year. They are now a picture of inconsistency, 3 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws in their last eight. They lost to Strasbourg last week 1-0 and it probably should have been more. They only have one win in their last four matches. Nice, on the other hand, no win in their last 3, withstood a Rennes barrage in the second half of last week’s game to hold on to a 1-1 draw. That was a good result, but laid bare the issue that Nice have been suffering from all season. Mainly, a lack of chance creation and cutting edge. They have struggled through what has been a very tough recent run where they have faced PSG, Montpellier, Marseille, Rennes and now Lens. They will be relieved to see the back of this stretch. Galtier is a great manager, but he regularly seems to lack a Plan B. He needs to find a way to get the ball to and get the best out of Amine Gouiri. That being said, Nice’s strong start to the season has set an excellent foundation, they are level on points with 4th placed Strasbourg and only 2 points off of third place. They have a lot to play for. Lens do not. I think this will be a low scoring or even a 0-0 draw.
STRASBOURG vs LYON
This is a fascinating match-up. Lyon are narrow favourites in the odds. Strasbourg are in 4th and were accumulating too many draws (4 in their last 6 games) before their solid if unspectacular win against Lens last week. They are on an eight-game unbeaten run which is their best run since the mid 90s. They have only conceded 3 goals in those eight. However, they have only scored 7 in the same period. They are grinding out results. And it is hard to understate how big home advantage is for Strasbourg. Their fans are loud and the stadium is a hostile place to visit for away teams. Add to that Lyon had a tough, tiring fixture midweek in London against West Ham. They secured a good 1-1 draw, and probably should have won. But, again, even against 10 men for most of the game, Lyon looked wildly insecure in defence, persisting in playing an eye wateringly high defensive line in the face of it being repeatedly broken through. If Lyon wins this game against RCS that would be huge. However, tired mentally and physically, defensively chaotic I cannot see Lyon winning. Strasbourg will win, not by much, but they will win.
Ligue 1 – Over 2.5 Goals – Betting Odds
