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Value Football Betting – Neel’s Betting Diary – Issue 3

Hello predictologists!

This week’s post might be refreshing for some of you who have read all kinds of promotional emails and marketing hype in the betting world. I’m not going to tell you about any particular winners I’ve had or hide away from any of my results. This is an honest post to help out anyone who is struggling with their betting, to reflect on how they might improve it and how, just because you may have had a bad start to a system or strategy, doesn’t mean you should give up on it without some careful thought and reflection.

There are many different types of bettors in this world and how you choose to bet or trade will affect how you might use a tool like predictology.

Broadly speaking, you might fall into one of 3 camps:

1) The Speedster

Lacking the time or desire to to research lots of games and wanting to have a simple shortlist to follow of potentially profitable games and picks but not be overloaded with information. Most likely you will be betting pre match on these too

2) The Thinker

You might follow a lot of football and enjoy the game and have been betting for a while. You want to use the shortlists to inform some of your own thinking or ideas about a game and you might spend some time coming up with a few systems and ideas of your own or follow a few of the recommended systems on the marketplace.

3) The Deep Diver

You will look through the data sheets on a regular basis, picking out value where you see it and playing around with the information to find interesting angles. You live and breathe football and data and the combination of both is a dream for you.

I have come to realise that although I aspire to be number 3, I am perhaps closer to number 2 because time doesn’t allow me to go into this much depth. Perhaps identifying which of these types of bettor or trader you are will inform how you best use the tools at your disposal.

As such, it is informing what I’m doing with my own bets on the predictology platform so far.

I mentioned in my last post that I was testing out a number of systems and had outlined a clear staking plan for this. It’s not been the greatest of starts but we wanted to share an honest account of how you might go about doing something like this and also where you can make improvements to refine your own methods.

So currently, all my systems are running at a loss but because of my more cautious staking plan, this is far from a disaster. Technical issues have meant I have had to restart my over 2.5 goals strategy as well.  The over 3.5 goals and BTTS systems are running at losses of 7.14 points and 15.35 points respectively. These can be easily salvaged with a good run of results.

Where I have had more concerns is over my match odds selections that are -37 points down so far. A lot of this is due to variance as these selections are at high odds ranges. A change to target profit percentage was challenging to automate (as many times the stake would be below the minimum allowed for betfair), so I have gone back to the drawing board for this one.

One of the cruelest things about variance in sports betting and trading is that there is no definite point at which you can safely say you’re unlucky or your system is a complete mess. You might end up abandoning a winning strategy because of a bad start. Or the opposite might be true and in my case, a very promising start on the Asian Handicap selections was followed by a swift bump back to earth and a lengthy losing streak.

So at this point, it’s important not to get disheartened and think more deeply about the problem. Treat the issue as a puzzle to solve and with a scientific method. If you were also in a situation like this, how could you refine your selections down even further? Here are some of the things I could certainly improve on.

* Limiting selections to higher quality leagues, such as the top divisions and countries high in the UEFA/FIFA coefficients and rankings. The theory goes that the better the standard of play, the more predictable it is to call the action. However, many would debate the opposite and see poorer leagues as opportunities to get an edge over the market.

* Limiting odds ranges to reduce variance. The Asian Handicap system is one way to get around this and I won’t be passing any judgement until I have bet on at least 1000 handicap games. However, on the match odds, there is potentially a sweet spot of particular odds ranges that can be uncovered that have a good strike rate.

* Less is more approach. I have spent a long time analyzing the AI database for selections. I have every confidence that this will be a profitable approach long term, but perhaps my initial bankroll may have been too small (even though 250 points is generous compared to many recommended starting banks you see out there). It’s also the case that the most successful traders I have spoken with are very selective and have much tighter criteria. This is something to bear in mind if you want to follow a similar methodology. Because my background is in value betting and I use a high turnover approach, this is something I am having to get used to and adapt to myself.

* Not trading out. Of course it’s easy to say in hindsight but there were many opportunities where I could have potentially traded out of games for a profit. If you are able to watch games and bet on an exchange this is a very sensible strategy. For me the practical challenge of being there live during all the games means its harder to do this consistently. This week for example, I did manage to make some good trades but these were away from the main selections I was tracking. If you are able to use the predictology tool in play, you will be able to uncover some superb opportunities at great odds.

From next week, I will share some specific games and selections from my shortlists for further discussion and hopefully it will be a profitable week for us all!

 

You can find Neel on our private facebook group including more in-depth analysis and tips. (You can also contact him via twitter @mybettorlife)

 

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