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Ligue 1 France Week 29 Analysis | Ligue 1 Betting Tips

 

Genesis is an expert on all things French football and runs an excellent Twitter channel here. There is a whole lot more to Ligue 1 than simply PSG, Messi, Mbappe and Neymar.  It is increasingly becoming a highly entertaining league with a wealth of young and exciting talent.

Each week, Genesis will be sharing his inside knowledge on the happenings within French Football and Ligue 1, so you can be well equipped to spot value betting opportunities each week.

 

 

Week 29 – Ligue 1 Betting Tips | French Football Betting

Welcome back to Ligue 1 and a look at three games that have caught my eye in Game Week 29.  Last week I correctly faded Lille against St Etienne and backed Rennes against Lyon.  However, I wrongly predicted Nice would beat Montpellier (but the referee conspired against me!) and that Nantes would beat Troyes…as I said the week before last, Nantes are never far away from their next inexplicable slip-up!  Let’s see how I do this week.

Check out our mid-season review of the 2022 Ligue 1 season here

 

Here are the latest betting odds for Ligue 1 at the time of publishing:

Let’s take a look at the matchups I am focussing on in GW29

 

BORDEAUX VS MONTPELLIER

 

The AI has Bordeaux as slight favourites here.  I can see what it is factoring in but I don’t agree.  Montpellier have admittedly only won 1 game in the last 7.  They look on the rocks.  However, they are a good side.  They have been unlucky recently and looked very good against Nice last week. They have some real talent.  And as I have mentioned recently, one mercurial talent in Teji Savanier.  He was sublime against OGC Nice.  And when he is on form he elevates Montpellier.  I think American football analysts talk about players as either ‘tractors’ or ‘trailers’.  Savanier is a tractor.  He drags the team with him, puts them on his shoulders.  If he is on form at the weekend then Montpellier will dismantle Bordeaux.  Bordeaux are yet to feel the new manager ‘bump’ after David Guion took the reins.  He is a good manager but Bordeaux are an absolute basket case.  They have one win in the last eleven and have the worst defence in the league by a country mile, they have conceded 68 in total in 28 games.  Both teams will likely score.  I feel Montpellier will win.

 

 

 

Ligue 1 – Both Teams To Score – Betting Odds

 

MARSEILLE VS NICES

 

This is a huge, huge game.  Marseille in second against Nice in third.  Now, that does not mean that this will be a classic. The odds have Marseille as runaway favourites.  That is not the case.  It could be drab.  These two are not renowned for their prolific scoring.  Both teams are very strong defensively. Nice have the best defence in the league.  Marseille are not far behind.  OM got a big win against Brest last week.  However, watching the game Marseille were not as good as you would imagine a team winning 4-1 would look.  And they have been looking tired and a little lacking in ideas recently. Nice were held by Montpellier after being reduced to ten men with centre back Dante sent off, in my opinion, incorrectly. Dimitri Payet’s status is worth monitoring.  If he is fit he could well be the deciding factor.  Amine Harit looked good against Brest but Payet is absolutely central to Marseille’s attacking potency.  Similarly, recently Justin Kluivert is central to Nice’s ability to counter-attack, a strategy they depend on.  He has been out but could be back at the weekend.  If Marseille push forward carelessly then Nice could punish them.  This feels like a draw in the making as both teams will be desperate not to drop points.

 

RENNES VS METZ

 

As with last week, Rennes are hot favourites and I completely agree with the odds.  Indeed it is worth backing Rennes to score multiple goals.  They have scored 14 in their last four matches and won four of their last five games.  They ruthlessly eviscerated Lyon last weekend, even if they were not actually that much better than OL over the 90.  They are a wonderful attacking team.  The likes of Martin Terrier, Gaetan Laborde and Benjamin Bourigeaud are underrated by those outside of France. Metz on the other hand are bad. Or at least, they are bad at getting results.  No win in their last seven but interestingly they have only conceded 5 goals in their last 7 games and kept 4 clean sheets.  Manager Frederic Antonetti has made Metz pretty solid.  Their big issue now is scoring.  Niane, Nguette, De Preville and Boulaya are not delivering up front.  They have scored only 2 goals in those same last 7 games and 26 in the league all season. They are 19th out of 20 in goals scored.  So while I do back Rennes to keep a clean sheet and score multiple goals, it maybe won’t be the goal-fest for Les Rouge et Noir that some are predicting.  Metz will make it tough for them to run away with it.

 

 

 

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Ligue 1 – Over 2.5 Goals – Betting Odds

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