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How To Avoid Back Fitting Your System

How To Build A Successful Betting Strategy

It’s the one subject that bites many inexperienced bettors on the backside. They “Google” how to make money with their betting and nine times out of ten, they’re faced with a plethora of information on how to create their own systems.

They get the general gist, subscribe to a database and start “mining” for information about what could be profitable.

 

And That’s where it all starts to go wrong…

It’s why most betting systems, that you either buy, subscribe to or simply create yourself, fail to deliver the promised profits.

So, why, when we create a system looking at previous results that return a handsome profit, do we then go onto lose our shirts?

Back Fitting!

Now, everyone who has ever placed a bet, unless they’ve literally shut their eyes and used a pin (or like my missus, who simply relies on the colours… alas that actually seems to work, sometimes!!!) are using some kind of back fitting to come up with their selections.

Back Fitting is not the enemy but you do need to understand it to avoid it’s pitfalls.

This is why we have a whole section inside Predictology dedicated to teaching members how to

  • Avoid the pitfalls of back-fitting
  • Develop a successful, long lasting, betting strategy
  • Refine a betting strategy
  • Measure success of a betting strategy

 

It’s to big a topic to cover all in one go here today, but we do want to touch on some of the key principals here today and how Predictology can both help you avoid back fitting, while truly developing the successful betting strategy that you have dreamed about.

 


 

What is a Betting System or Strategy

Developing a successful system or method involves locating the niche trends of profit which evolves from the dynamic created between ratings, filters and form factors.

Logical Rules

The rules must be logical if a strategy is to have chance of forward success. For instance, if your system requires Man Utd to have won their previous came 3-0 or 2-1 only. It is clearly an illogical and back-fitted system. It basically says that it is only profitable to back Man Utd when they have won by particular score line in the previous game – the sample size is likely to way to small and what logic is there that a particular score line will have an impact on their chance of winning the next game.

 

Few Rules

The best and most sustainable systems will have very few rules. Usually one or two, and no more than three rules in general.

 

Methodology

To begin with, you will need a basic idea or a theme for the strategy that you want to create. It may be teams who won their last two games, or teams who’s rating is X points higher than their opponent, or average goals scored and it’s relationship to Under / Over 2.5 goals betting market, or one of thousands of themes that you can test and develop within the Predictology platform. It can be form based, sequence based, league position based, or ratings based or a combination of each.

 

Work Forwards

The number one problem with anyone trying to build a system is that they work backwards. Usually most ideas are born from the observation of current form and betting patterns. The temptation is to test those observations over the current period for instant gratification from the results that will reflect what you already know; that is that your theme or idea currently works. Once users establish that they have this ‘goldmine’ (from current testing) they then back test the idea, usually over all the data at once and then commence back-fitting whatever they can in order to come up with a system.

We recommend members to test initial ideas on data from a number of seasons ago (in some instances, this can be as far back as 2003). Then move forwards in clusters of seasons.

 

 

Number of Selections

There is often a tendency to strip out the negative results from a system test in an effort to create a seemingly perfect system. Beware – There is no such thing as a perfect betting strategy!

Doing this creates a mirage, in that this random group of results (often a small sample numbers) are highly likely not to repeat. Other problems exist in respect of small sample systems, in that not only do such systems have too few selections per year, they are also subject to high levels of variance which makes betting for profit unsustainable.

The more selections you have the more likely it is that you have identified a true pocket of profit that is currently under bet by the market. The more selections per week on average, the better and more stable the performance of your system will be.

 

What will have the LEAST impact

When tweaking your system, you are looking for what will have the LEAST impact. By that we mean the option that will eliminate the least winners and the least selections.

The natural tendency is to focus on profit over selection quantity but we want to avoid that where ever possible. By avoiding this you will most likely retain far more selections in your system and less rules than doing it the other way round.

Apply one change at a time before re- testing and re-analysing your system. We have optimised the platform so that systems generally only take a few seconds to a minute to populate, so it is very quick and easy to test many things, one at a time.

When running each test, keep a note on the total volume of bets and total number of winners. If a change makes a significant difference, you may want to make a note of that filter, remove it, and try something with LESS of an impact.

 


If you’d like to learn more about creating successful betting strategies the RIGHT way as well as get access to a number of ready-made and profitable prediction models, you can access Predictology here.

 

Remember the very best betting systems and strategies are logical and have the least amount of rules as possible.

To your betting success from the team at Predictology.

 

 

 

 

1 thought on “How To Avoid Back Fitting Your System

  • Hello,
    what kind of betting strategy is that? does the system tell me exactly what to type? how does it all work, maybe you have a video of the last recommendations ??

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