The Days Best Football Bets

27th July

Our Daily Best Bets uses cutting edge machine learning techniques and statistical models to analyse our internal database of over 400,000 matches to predict outcomes and determine the true probability of each team and match.

It looks at 100s of metrics including league and team strength, form, player influences, market noise and many others, overlaying these with mathematical distribution models to generate ratings and probabilities for each team and match.

We then analyse the live market odds across our portfolio of 35+ bookmakers and compare the odds available against our probabilities to determine which matches are presenting value. In other words, the odds available are higher than what we have determined to be the true probability of the team winning.

Lastly, we further overlay our key performance indicators which compares the match characteristics and ratings against our historical database, looking at similar teams, odds points, and value probabilities to allow us to ‘cherry pick’ the matches with the highest probability of delivering a positive return and the highest realistic, and consistent, win rate. (E.g. the frequency of winning bets you will receive).

We then advise those bets whereby our model suspects them to be value bets and with a high probability of a successful bet.

The culmination of this work is what you will find on this page, with selections being advised as singles and double bets, where appropriate.

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All the hard work has been done for you. Simply spend a few minutes each day placing the bets ensuring you are getting prices better than the minimum priced advised, then let the power of compounding work its magic for you.

 

 



 

Results

You can download and review the historical results at any time by clicking the below links.

Apr 2022 - July 2023 HISTORICAL RESULTS DOWNLOAD

Aug 2023 - To Date historic-results

 

Staking

For Home Win and the Acca Bets, we recommend simply splitting your bank into two. Then for each bet, you stake 2.5% per bet or acca.

You can adjust your stake after each bet, or after each betting day, whichever works best for you.

The bonus Over 3.5 goals are designed to bet to 1 point level stakes or traded in-play.

Home Win

What follows are the strongest betting opportunities for the day ahead and average an over 80% strike rate.

We recommend staking 2.5% of your bank on each selection. You can adjust your stake after each bet or after each betting day.

Date	Matches	Prediction home	Prediction draw	Prediction away	Odds home	Odds draw	Odds away	Bet	% Chance	Value	Min Odds
27 Jul 2024 20:15	Peru: Primera División : ADT - Santa Rosa PNP	72.78%	17.51%	9.70%	1.54	4.00	5.26	Home Win	72.78%	112.41%	1.37
27 Jul 2024 22:00	Brazil: Serie A : Palmeiras - Vitória	74.26%	16.71%	9.04%	1.35	4.98	8.87	Home Win	74.26%	100.00%	1.35
28 Jul 2024 01:00	Mexico: Liga de Expansión MX : Mineros de Zacatecas - Dorados	75.59%	15.40%	9.01%	1.46	4.24	5.72	Home Win	75.59%	110.61%	1.32

Bonus Approach: If trading is your thing, monitor the above games and if level at the break or around 60 minutes, consider an in-play bet on the nominated selection.

Goal Betting

An easy, set and forget shortlists of bets. All selections are advised as 1pt level stake bets on Over 3.5 goals.

Date	Matches	Prediction home	Prediction draw	Prediction away	Odds home	Odds draw	Odds away	Odds Over 3.5	Odds Under 3.5
27 Jul 2024 14:00	Denmark: Superliga : Nordsjælland - Midtjylland	61.02%	19.91%	19.08%	2.13	3.78	3.12	2.28	1.65
28 Jul 2024 08:30	Czech Republic: 2. Liga FNL : Slavia Praha II - Sparta Praha II	55.90%	20.32%	23.77%

Bonus: These selections have a lifetime average of 3.39 goals per game and can present solid in-play betting and trading opportunities.

Acca - Doubles

We hand pick the best match ups of our strongest bets of the day to create double betting opportunities.

You can consider larger Acca bets, such as 3 folds and 4 folds but remember that this will reduce your strike rate, the more selections that you add into an Acca.

With this in mind, we recommend staking 2.5% of your bank on each acca (double) selection. You can adjust your stake after each bet or after each betting day.

Date	Matches	Odds	Stake
27 Jul 2024 22:00	Brazil: Serie A : Palmeiras - Vitória	1.35	2.08
27 Jul 2024 20:15	Peru: Primera División : ADT - Santa Rosa PNP	1.54

Excel Version

If you prefer to download the selections and put them into your own tracker files etc, you can access the latest daily sheet here.

Best Bets - Download Here