October 22, 2026
How Often Do Half-Time Leads Hold? 2026/27 vs the Last 10 Seasons
How often do half-time leads hold? Win, draw and defeat rates for half-time leaders in 13 leagues so far in...
October 21, 2026
7-min read
Playing at home is one of the oldest edges in football, and one of the first things any model or strategy has to account for. When matches were played without crowds in 2020/21, it shrank. So how strong is it this season, and is it the same everywhere?
We looked at every league match in 13 leagues so far in 2026/27, 1,067 games played up to 19 October 2026, and compared them with 48,414 league matches from the previous ten seasons (2016/17 to 2025/26) in the Predictology match database.
The headline numbers
- Overall, home advantage looks normal. Home teams have won 43.0% of matches this season (459 of 1,067), drawn 25.8% and lost 31.2%. At the same stage of the previous ten seasons the split was 43.3%, 25.7% and 31.0%, and over those ten full seasons 43.9%, 25.3% and 30.9%.
- Home sides are taking their usual share of the points. Home teams have collected 56.5% of all league points awarded this season, against 56.7% at this stage and 57.1% over the ten seasons.
- Nothing like 2020/21. In the season played mostly without fans, home teams won only 40.4% of matches and took 53.4% of the points, the lowest of the ten seasons on both counts. At this stage of the other nine seasons the home win rate ranged from 42.5% to 44.6%; this season’s 43.0% sits inside that range.
- More goals at both ends. Home teams are scoring 1.62 goals a game and away teams 1.35, both up on the ten-season averages of 1.51 and 1.22.
League by league
The overall figure hides big differences between leagues. “Home share of points” is the share of all league points won by home teams (a win is 3 points, a draw 1 each). “10-season” covers 2016/17 to 2025/26.
| League | Matches 2026/27 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | Home share of points | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-season | 2026/27 | 10-season | 2026/27 | 10-season | 2026/27 | 10-season | 2026/27 | ||
| Belgian Pro League | 72 | 43.8% | 48.6% | 24.7% | 18.1% | 31.5% | 33.3% | 56.7% | 58.1% |
| Bundesliga | 54 | 44.2% | 51.9% | 24.8% | 20.4% | 31.0% | 27.8% | 57.2% | 62.9% |
| Championship | 131 | 43.5% | 39.7% | 26.2% | 27.5% | 30.3% | 32.8% | 57.2% | 53.8% |
| Eredivisie | 81 | 45.1% | 32.1% | 23.6% | 28.4% | 31.3% | 39.5% | 57.5% | 45.9% |
| La Liga | 88 | 45.4% | 43.2% | 26.2% | 28.4% | 28.4% | 28.4% | 59.4% | 58.2% |
| League One | 114 | 43.5% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 29.8% | 30.7% | 31.6% | 57.0% | 53.9% |
| League Two | 126 | 42.3% | 49.2% | 26.9% | 34.1% | 30.8% | 16.7% | 56.4% | 68.4% |
| Liga Portugal | 72 | 44.2% | 38.9% | 24.1% | 25.0% | 31.6% | 36.1% | 56.8% | 51.5% |
| Ligue 1 | 63 | 44.0% | 44.4% | 25.3% | 23.8% | 30.8% | 31.7% | 57.2% | 56.9% |
| Premier League | 70 | 44.7% | 40.0% | 23.2% | 28.6% | 32.2% | 31.4% | 56.8% | 54.7% |
| Scottish Premiership | 54 | 44.0% | 40.7% | 24.0% | 20.4% | 32.0% | 38.9% | 56.5% | 51.0% |
| Serie A | 70 | 41.9% | 47.1% | 25.6% | 17.1% | 32.5% | 35.7% | 55.1% | 56.1% |
| Super Lig | 72 | 45.2% | 48.6% | 25.6% | 19.4% | 29.2% | 31.9% | 58.7% | 58.9% |
| All 13 leagues | 1,067 | 43.9% | 43.0% | 25.3% | 25.8% | 30.9% | 31.2% | 57.1% | 56.5% |
What stands out
Eredivisie: away teams on top
Dutch home sides have won only 26 of 81 matches (32.1%, against 45.1% over ten seasons), while away teams have won 32 (39.5%). Away sides are also scoring more: 2.04 goals a game to the home teams’ 1.80. At this stage of the previous ten seasons, Eredivisie home teams had always won more than a third of matches, and away wins had never outnumbered home wins.
League Two: the strongest home edge
Away teams in League Two have won just 21 of 126 matches (16.7%, against 30.8% over ten seasons). Home sides have won 49.2% and drawn many of the rest (34.1%), taking 68.4% of the points, the highest share of the 13 leagues. No league had an away win rate this low at this stage of any of the previous ten seasons.
Bundesliga: home teams scoring freely
Bundesliga home sides are scoring 2.28 goals a game and conceding 1.41, a margin of 0.87 goals a game. That’s the biggest home margin of the 13 leagues this season, and bigger than the Bundesliga’s at this stage of any of the previous ten seasons (its ten-season average is 0.35). Home teams have won 28 of 54 (51.9%).
Portugal and Scotland: home advantage close to zero
In Liga Portugal, away teams have scored more goals than home teams (104 to 94 in 72 matches), and home sides have taken only 51.5% of the points (ten seasons: 56.8%). In the Scottish Premiership, away teams have won 21 of 54 matches and home teams 22, leaving the home share of points at 51.0% (56.5% over ten seasons).
England: below par in the top three divisions
Home win rates are down on their ten-season averages in the Premier League (40.0% against 44.7%), the Championship (39.7% against 43.5%) and League One (38.6% against 43.5%), with more draws in each. That makes League Two’s home strength all the more unusual.
Is it real, or just a small sample?
Each league has only 54 to 131 matches so far, so a few results can move these percentages a long way, and with 13 leagues to look at, one or two are bound to look odd by chance alone. A quick check is to ask how often the usual rate would produce this season’s result:
- League Two: if away teams were winning at their ten-season rate, 21 or fewer away wins in 126 matches would happen fewer than 1 in 4,000 times. That’s very unlikely to be chance alone.
- Eredivisie: 26 or fewer home wins in 81 matches would happen about 1 in 90 times at the usual rate. Unusual, but less striking once you remember there are 13 leagues in the table.
- Bundesliga: 28 or more home wins in 54 matches would happen about 16% of the time at the usual rate, so the win count alone could easily be chance, even if the goal margin stands out.
Before you build a strategy on a home or away trend like this, check the sample, compare it with the long run, and give it a few more weeks. Our earlier posts on how 2026/27 compares with the last ten seasons and how often half-time leads hold look at other angles from the same data.
Test it yourself in Predictology
Predictology’s System Builder lets you build football models from over 400,000 matches and 100+ variables, and test and refine strategies in minutes, so you can see how a home or away angle has held up over many seasons rather than ten weeks. Our in-play alerts and live trading tools then flag matches as they happen.
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Source: Predictology match database, full-time and half-time results. This season’s figures cover league matches played up to 19 October 2026, with every half-time and full-time score cross-checked against football-data.co.uk. The ten-season baseline counts the 48,414 regular league matches that football-data.co.uk also lists, using football-data.co.uk’s score for the 36 matches where the two sources disagreed; play-off games and awarded results are left out. Past results don’t guarantee future results. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at www.begambleaware.org.
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