October 17, 2026
How Often Do Half-Time Leads Hold? 2026/27 vs the Last 10 Seasons
How often do half-time leads hold? Win, draw and defeat rates for half-time leaders in 13 leagues so far in...
October 11, 2026
7-min read
Every new season brings early talking points: a league that suddenly looks goal-crazy, favourites that keep slipping up, a division where nobody can win away from home. The useful question for anyone building a betting system is whether those early numbers are really different from normal, or just noise.
So we compared the first ten weeks of 2026/27 with the previous ten seasons, using the Predictology match database. That’s 906 matches played this season (to 10 October 2026) against a baseline of 48,716 matches from 2016/17 to 2025/26, across 13 leagues.
Five things that look different this season
- The Premier League’s favourites are struggling. The pre-match favourite has won 46.4% of the 56 matches so far, against 56.3% over the last ten seasons. Draws are up to 32.1% (from 23.2%), and only 58.9% of matches have had a first-half goal (from 72.2%).
- The Bundesliga is running hot. 76.7% of matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, against a ten-season rate of 60.0%, and the average is 3.86 goals a game (from 3.10).
- The Championship has opened up. Over 2.5 is at 62.3% (from 47.4%) and both teams have scored in 67.0% of matches (from 51.0%).
- Away days are hard in League Two. Away teams have won 16.7% of matches, about half their usual 30.8%, and 35.1% have been draws (from 26.8%).
- Favourites have also struggled in League One and Scotland. They’ve won 39.2% of League One matches (usually 49.8%) and 43.5% in the Scottish Premiership (usually 55.5%). Belgium is the exception the other way: favourites there have won 63.2% (usually 52.6%).
The full comparison
“10-season” covers 2016/17 to 2025/26. “Favourite” is the shorter-priced side at the pre-match market-average odds; matches where both sides were priced the same are left out of that column.
| League | Matches | Over 2.5 | Draws | Favourite won | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-season | 2026/27 | 10-season | 2026/27 | 10-season | 2026/27 | 10-season | 2026/27 | |
| Belgium Pro League | 2,848 | 68 | 55.7% | 61.8% | 24.7% | 17.6% | 52.6% | 63.2% |
| Bundesliga | 3,052 | 43 | 60.0% | 76.7% | 24.8% | 20.9% | 53.4% | 51.2% |
| Championship | 5,555 | 106 | 47.4% | 62.3% | 26.2% | 30.2% | 47.9% | 46.2% |
| Eredivisie | 2,973 | 68 | 59.4% | 72.1% | 23.4% | 29.4% | 56.6% | 52.9% |
| La Liga | 3,791 | 73 | 48.0% | 56.2% | 26.2% | 24.7% | 54.9% | 55.6% |
| League One | 5,398 | 102 | 48.9% | 54.9% | 25.8% | 31.4% | 49.8% | 39.2% |
| League Two | 5,420 | 114 | 47.5% | 43.0% | 26.8% | 35.1% | 46.6% | 41.2% |
| Liga Portugal | 3,053 | 67 | 48.6% | 55.2% | 24.1% | 26.9% | 56.6% | 52.2% |
| Ligue 1 | 3,462 | 51 | 51.8% | 60.8% | 25.2% | 27.5% | 52.8% | 49.0% |
| Premier League | 3,791 | 56 | 54.5% | 53.6% | 23.2% | 32.1% | 56.3% | 46.4% |
| Scottish Premiership | 2,239 | 46 | 51.6% | 54.3% | 24.0% | 19.6% | 55.5% | 43.5% |
| Serie A | 3,781 | 53 | 52.6% | 56.6% | 25.6% | 17.0% | 56.6% | 58.5% |
| Super Lig | 3,353 | 59 | 53.4% | 57.6% | 25.5% | 22.0% | 53.4% | 47.5% |
Is it real, or just a small sample?
Most of these leagues have 40 to 115 matches so far this season. At that size, a few results can move a percentage by several points. Take the Premier League: 56 matches is less than a sixth of a season, and its favourites’ win rate would have to stay close to 46.4% for months before it meant much.
That’s why we test systems across many seasons instead of chasing what’s hot right now. Three habits help:
- Check the sample. A rule that looks great over 50 matches needs to hold up over several hundred before you trust it.
- Compare with the long run. If this season is far from the ten-season average, ask whether something has really changed (new teams, a rule change, a different schedule) or whether it’s likely to drift back.
- Test across seasons, not just one. A strategy that only works in one season is usually fitting to noise.
Test it yourself in the System Builder
Predictology’s System Builder lets you build and backtest your own football betting systems across more than 400,000 matches and 100+ variables, so you can see how a rule such as “back the favourite in League One” or “Over 2.5 in the Bundesliga” has performed over many seasons, not just the last ten weeks.
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Source: Predictology match database, results and pre-match market-average odds; this season’s figures cover matches up to 10 October 2026. Past results don’t guarantee future results. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at www.begambleaware.org.
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