October 17, 2026
Ten Weeks In: How 2026/27 Compares With the Last 10 Seasons
Favourites, draws and goals in 2026/27 so far compared with the previous 10 seasons across 13 leagues, from the Predictology...
October 14, 2026
7-min read
A goal up at half-time feels like a big step towards three points, and in-play it’s the moment many traders act on: backing the leader, laying the draw or waiting for a reaction. But how often does a half-time lead actually hold, and is this season any different?
We went through every match in 13 leagues so far in 2026/27, 946 games played up to 12 October 2026, and compared them with 48,714 matches from the previous ten seasons (2016/17 to 2025/26) in the Predictology match database.
The headline numbers
- Leads are as common as ever. One team was ahead at half-time in 59.4% of matches this season (562 of 946), against 59.2% over the last ten seasons.
- More of them end in draws. Half-time leaders have gone on to win 72.8%, draw 20.1% and lose 7.1%. Over ten seasons the split is 74.2%, 17.4% and 8.5%.
- One goal is a thin cushion. One-goal leads have been held 64.5% of the time (67.3% over ten seasons). Leads of two goals or more have been held 91.8% (92.0%). Only one team has lost after leading by two at the break this season, in League One.
- Home leads hold better than away leads. Home teams leading at half-time have won 77.1% (77.8%), away teams 67.5% (69.2%).
- Level at the break? 36.7% of matches level at half-time have finished as draws, in line with the ten-season rate of 36.7%.
League by league
“Half-time leader” is the share of matches where one team was ahead at the break. The other columns show what happened to those leaders by full time. “10-season” covers 2016/17 to 2025/26.
| League | Matches 2026/27 |
Half-time leader | Leader won | Leader drew | Leader lost | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-season | 2026/27 | 10-season | 2026/27 | 10-season | 2026/27 | 10-season | 2026/27 | ||
| Belgian Pro League | 72 | 60.2% | 59.7% | 73.8% | 76.7% | 16.5% | 16.3% | 9.7% | 7.0% |
| Bundesliga | 45 | 62.4% | 77.8% | 75.3% | 71.4% | 16.3% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 14.3% |
| Championship | 107 | 57.6% | 64.5% | 73.7% | 69.6% | 17.4% | 21.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% |
| Eredivisie | 72 | 61.7% | 65.3% | 76.2% | 76.6% | 16.0% | 19.1% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| La Liga | 78 | 55.9% | 51.3% | 73.5% | 77.5% | 18.4% | 17.5% | 8.1% | 5.0% |
| League One | 102 | 58.8% | 54.9% | 73.8% | 69.6% | 18.4% | 23.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% |
| League Two | 114 | 57.7% | 51.8% | 73.2% | 62.7% | 18.4% | 28.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% |
| Liga Portugal | 71 | 58.9% | 53.5% | 76.0% | 78.9% | 16.5% | 15.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% |
| Ligue 1 | 54 | 59.5% | 59.3% | 73.6% | 75.0% | 18.1% | 15.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% |
| Premier League | 60 | 61.0% | 50.0% | 75.4% | 70.0% | 15.9% | 23.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% |
| Scottish Premiership | 48 | 61.3% | 75.0% | 75.5% | 75.0% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 8.6% | 11.1% |
| Serie A | 60 | 59.2% | 58.3% | 72.4% | 74.3% | 18.3% | 25.7% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Super Lig | 63 | 59.3% | 66.7% | 73.3% | 76.2% | 17.7% | 19.0% | 9.0% | 4.8% |
| All 13 leagues | 946 | 59.2% | 59.4% | 74.2% | 72.8% | 17.4% | 20.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% |
What stands out
League Two: leads are turning into draws
17 of the 59 half-time leads in League Two have ended level (28.8%, against 18.4% over ten seasons), and the leader has won only 62.7% of the time, the lowest of the 13 leagues. It fits a division that has been tight all season, with plenty of draws and few away wins.
Serie A: no comebacks yet
None of the 35 teams that led at half-time in Serie A has gone on to lose. Over the last ten seasons 9.3% of Serie A leaders were beaten. Italy has also been the least likely league to finish level when the score was level at the break: only 3 of 25 such matches ended as draws (12.0%, against 36.2% over ten seasons).
Bundesliga: early leads, more twists
35 of the 45 Bundesliga matches so far have had a half-time leader (77.8%, the highest of any league here; the ten-season figure is 62.4%). But 5 of those leaders went on to lose, 14.3% against a usual 8.3%.
Premier League: fewer leads at the break
Only 30 of the 60 Premier League matches have had a half-time leader (50.0%, against 61.0%), the lowest share of the 13 leagues. When a lead did come, home sides converted 15 of 18, but away sides only 6 of 12 (ten-season rates: 78.4% home, 71.5% away).
Championship: a big home/away gap
Championship sides leading at home have won 30 of 34 (88.2%, against 77.3%). Away leaders have won just 18 of 35 (51.4%, against 68.7%).
Is it real, or just a small sample?
Each league has only 45 to 114 matches so far, so a handful of late goals can move these percentages a long way. Serie A is a good example. If its leaders were losing at their usual ten-season rate, a run of 35 leads without a single defeat would still happen about 3% of the time. Unusual, but not proof that anything has changed.
Three habits help before you build a strategy on a trend like this:
- Check the sample. Dozens of matches can point you somewhere; hundreds are what you need before trusting a rule.
- Compare with the long run. The ten-season figures are the better guide to what normally happens. If this season is far away from them, ask why before assuming it will last.
- Split by situation. A one-goal home lead and a one-goal away lead behave very differently, as the Championship shows.
Test it yourself in Predictology
Predictology’s System Builder lets you build and backtest your own football betting systems across more than 400,000 matches and 100+ variables, so you can see how a rule has held up over many seasons rather than ten weeks. Our in-play alerts and live trading tools then flag matches as they happen.
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Source: Predictology match database, half-time and full-time results. This season’s figures cover matches played up to 12 October 2026, with every half-time and full-time score cross-checked against football-data.co.uk. The ten-season baseline excludes 282 duplicate entries of the same match and 2 rows that weren’t played league matches, and uses football-data.co.uk’s score for the 42 matches where the two sources disagreed. Past results don’t guarantee future results. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at www.begambleaware.org.
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