Most goals come after half-time. Legs tire, substitutes come on and teams chasing a result take more risks. But is that still true this season, and is it the same in every league? It matters if you look at first-half or second-half goal markets, or at which half will have more goals.

We looked at every league match in 13 leagues so far in 2026/27, 1,218 games played up to 26 October 2026, and compared them with 48,414 league matches from the previous ten seasons (2016/17 to 2025/26) in the Predictology match database. A “half” here includes its stoppage time.

The headline numbers

• Both halves are busier than usual. This season’s matches have averaged 1.30 first-half and 1.67 second-half goals a game (2.97 in all), against 1.20 and 1.51 at the same stage of the previous ten seasons. Both are the highest at this stage of any of the eleven seasons.
• The split hasn’t moved. 56.3% of this season’s goals (2,036 of 3,616) have come after half-time, against 55.7% at this stage of the previous ten seasons. In those seasons the share at this stage ranged from 53.6% (2022/23) to 58.1% (2016/17).
• Which half has more goals? The second half has had more goals in 46.8% of matches, the first half in 28.6%, and both halves the same number in 24.6%. At this stage of the previous ten seasons the split was 44.6%, 29.1% and 26.4%.
• Fewer goalless halves. 17.7% of matches have had no second-half goal (previous ten seasons at this stage: 21.1%), and 27.3% have been goalless at half-time (29.5%).

League by league

“10-season” covers all league matches from 2016/17 to 2025/26. “Share of goals after half-time” is the share of all goals scored in the second half, stoppage time included.

What stands out

Scottish Premiership: first halves on top

Scotland is the only one of the 13 leagues where first halves have produced more goals this season: 92 before half-time and 77 after it in 60 matches, so only 45.6% of the goals have come in the second half (ten seasons: 54.7%). The first half has had more goals in 22 matches and the second half in 21. Scottish first halves have out-scored second halves at this stage of the season twice before, in 2018/19 and 2020/21, but 45.6% is the lowest second-half share of any of the 13 leagues at this stage of any of the previous ten seasons (the previous low was Scotland’s 47.7% in 2018/19).

Bundesliga and Eredivisie: busy second halves

Second halves in both leagues have averaged 2.17 goals a game, against 1.71 (Bundesliga) and 1.73 (Eredivisie) over ten seasons. At this stage of the previous ten seasons, the highest second-half rate in any of the 13 leagues was the Eredivisie’s 2.00 in 2023/24. In the Bundesliga, 61.2% of goals have come after half-time, the highest share of the 13 leagues, and the second half has had more goals than the first in 38 of 63 matches (60.3%). No league reached that rate at this stage of any of the previous ten seasons (the closest was the Belgian Pro League’s 58.1% in 2020/21).

Championship: lively first halves

Championship matches have averaged 1.42 first-half goals a game, against 1.12 over ten seasons, and the highest the division had managed at this stage of any of those seasons was 1.26 (2022/23 and 2023/24). With second halves close to normal, only 51.0% of Championship goals have come after the break. Only the Eredivisie (1.63) and Scotland (1.53) have had more first-half goals a game.

Is it real, or just a small sample?

Each league has only 60 to 150 matches so far, so a handful of games can move these figures a long way. Scotland’s second-half share at this stage has swung between 47.7% and 62.4% over the last ten seasons, so a low figure after 60 matches isn’t unheard of, even if this season’s is the lowest yet. The overall picture rests on 1,218 matches and looks more solid: goals are up in both halves, and the second half’s share is where it usually is.

If you look at markets such as second-half goals or the highest-scoring half, base rates like these are a starting point, not a forecast: turn the price into a probability (1 divided by the decimal odds) and compare it with the rate for that league before you bet. Our earlier posts on how 2026/27 compares with the last ten seasons, how often half-time leads hold and home advantage this season look at other angles from the same data.

Test it yourself in Predictology

Predictology’s System Builder lets you build football models from over 400,000 matches and 100+ variables, and test and refine strategies in minutes, so you can see how a goals angle has held up over many seasons rather than ten weeks. Our in-play alerts and live trading tools then flag matches as they happen.

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Source: Predictology match database, full-time and half-time results. This season’s figures cover league matches played up to 26 October 2026, with every half-time and full-time score cross-checked against football-data.co.uk. The ten-season baseline counts the 48,414 regular league matches that football-data.co.uk also lists, using football-data.co.uk’s score for the 36 matches where the two sources disagreed; play-off games and awarded results are left out. “At this stage” means matches played up to 26 October of each season. Past results don’t guarantee future results. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at www.begambleaware.org.