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Ligue 1 France Week 38 Analysis | Ligue 1 Betting Tips

 

Genesis is an expert on all things French football and runs an excellent Twitter channel here. There is a whole lot more to Ligue 1 than simply PSG, Messi, Mbappe and Neymar.  It is increasingly becoming a highly entertaining league with a wealth of young and exciting talent.

Each week, Genesis will be sharing his inside knowledge on the happenings within French Football and Ligue 1, so you can be well equipped to spot value betting opportunities each week.

 


 


Week 38 – Ligue 1 Betting Tips | French Football Betting

Welcome to the final week of the season in Ligue 1. Excitingly, there’s still a lot to play for. This week I will be focussing on the games, top and bottom, with the most at stake. Before that, how did I do last week?  I suggested that the odds were too heavily in Lyon’s favour against Nantes, the game would be close and likely have multiple goals.  Lyon ran out 3-2 winners.  Bordeaux were hot favourites in the odds against Lorient.  I said this was likely not how things would transpire, I predicted that both sides would score.  Remarkably they drew 0-0!  I got Rennes v Marseille wrong.  I said that heavy favourites Rennes were defensively vulnerable and would struggle against OM.  They ran out 2-0 winners and looked superb.  The odds were bang on.

After a number of great and profitable weeks, we missed the mark last week, but let’s see if we can get back on form and redeem ourselves in the final round of games. 

Check out our mid-season review of the 2022 Ligue 1 season here

 

Here are the latest betting odds for Ligue 1 at the time of publishing:

 


 

Lens vs Monaco

These are the two form teams in the league. This is the game of the round. Lens are unbeaten in 7 and Monaco have 9 (yes 9) wins in a row.  That impressive winning run has seen Les Monagasques move above Marseille into 2nd place, the automatic Champions League spot, on goal difference.  Monaco have a four-goal headstart on OM and, while they are guaranteed European football next season they will be gunning to retain second place.  Monaco are seemingly always late season specialists.  In this run they have beaten Lille, Nice, Rennes and PSG. They have no major injury concerns, have been creating chances and scoring well.  However, they have also been conceding chances and goals.  Lens are a really creative team, can cause teams real problems with their energy and pressing and I think they will score. They are narrow favourites in the odds.  That is a dangerous pick.  I have a feeling that this will be a tight one.  I can’t predict that both teams will score.  If I had to pick a winner, I think momentum sees Monaco edge past Lens and hold onto second place.  But Lens are just as capable of winning this with what will be raucous home support behind them.  Seko Fofana versus Aurelien Tchouameni in possibly their last games for their perspective clubs should be a fascinating midfield battle.

 

 


 


 

Ligue 1 – Both Teams To Score – Betting Odds


 

Lille vs Rennes

Lille are the favourites in the odds here.  I can see how that shook out.  However, I am not sure that is how it plays out in real life.  Admittedly, Lille have been playing as well as they have done all season in their last few games.  They beat a stalling Nice side 3-1, Jonathan David finally managed to score.  They also did not play too badly in their 2-1 loss to Monaco, only Aurelien Tchouameni’s brilliance split the sides.  They certainly have no pressure anymore, they cannot qualify for Europe any longer.  Plus, the likes of Sven Botman, Renato Sanches and Jonathan David are possibly playing their farewell game for the club.  Will that affect their focus or motivate them to perform?  Hard to tell.  In the meantime, the Rennes juggernaut has stalled just a little recently.  By stalling, I mean compared to their previous form.  They are still playing well but have lost three in their last 9 and drawn 1.  However, they dealt with Marseille last week at a canter.  They also don’t have any major injury concerns and they also have Doku and Sulemana back available.  I imagine Rennes will throw the kitchen sink at this game.  If other results go against them and Lille win they could fall out of the European places.  Both Strasbourg and Nice are two points behind them.  With all that being said, I think Rennes will win this one. They have more at stake and more talent at their disposal.

 

 

 

 


 

Ligue 1 – Over 2.5 Goals – Betting Odds


 

Marseille vs Strasbourg

A huge game for Marseille.  There will be some organisational shock that they have allowed second place to slip.  They had that position in their hands for so long, they were even still mathematically in the title race for a long stretch despite PSG’s dominance.  And now, Monaco sit above them, level on points but with a 4 goal better goal difference.  The odds have OM as major favourites here.  Their creative talisman, Dimitri Payet is done for the season.  Further, one of their defensive rocks, William Saliba, is suspended for this game.  And as we have seen, when Sampaoli shuffles the pack the backups don’t often hit the mark.  European qualification is guaranteed but to miss out on the Champions League would be a major blow.  They have lost 2 of their last 3 and were thoroughly outclassed and comfortably beaten by Rennes last week.  Fatigue is definitely a problem for them.  Strasbourg have had a wonderful season.  Beyond their own wildest expectations.  Julian Stephan has done a stunning job with a solid if unspectacular squad. I fear though that they may be burning out.  It has taken so much effort both mental and physical to get this far, they can still make Europe but to have OM stood in their way is a daunting prospect.  RCS have drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 9 with 5 wins as well.  That is not bad form but they have looked a bit rough around the edges.  I think they may well take Marseille to the wire but won’t have enough in reserve to beat Marseille.  They can expect a draw at best but an OM win is the far more likely result here, a good pick.


Nantes vs St Etienne

Now we head off down to the very bottom of the league.  Bordeaux have already been relegated.  And St Etienne find themselves in 19th having let the relegation playoff place slip into Metz’s hands last week.  St Etienne have everything to play for.  They cannot make it out of the relegation zone but they can wrest the playoff place back out of Metz’s hands if they win and Metz, as expected, lose to PSG in Paris they can snatch the place back.  However, while they should be putting their heart and soul into this game, their recent form is a major concern.  They have lost their last 4 games and only have 1 win in their last 10.  And in those games they have shipped a serious amount of goals.  They’ve lost 4-2 to Marseille, 6-2 to Lorient, 4-1 to Monaco and 4-2 to Nice in that time.  This defensive collapse, after having seemingly solidified somewhat a month or two ago, means that Nantes will score and likely more than one.  Issues behind the scenes at ASSE around club ownership, manager searches and players seeking to leave will have exacerbated the onfield issues.  That is great news for Nantes.  I had suggested a few weeks ago that Nantes, Cup win secured and nothing to play for in the league, would be ‘on the beach’.  Quite the opposite it turns out.  They beat Rennes two weeks ago and looked very competitive against Lyon last week.  Add to that there will be loud home support and this game will be the last at the club for some key players.  Kolo Muani is a Nantes kid and departs this summer.  Plus, Lafont, Blas and Moses Simon could also depart and will probably want to go out with a bang.  Taken together, I think Nantes drill St Etienne.  But a cheeky wager on both teams to score would not be a crazy idea.


 

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