Do You Want to Know if a Betting System is a Fluke? Ask Archie!
If you’re reading this as a Predictology member, you probably have some experience in the world of betting. In that case, you have surely signed up for at least one newsletter that promises enormous profits.
These tipsters hit you with extremely impressive-sounding stats. Who wouldn’t like to earn an ROI of 84%? Your system can earn 224 units in three months? Yes, please!
On and on it goes. Then you sign up and find your bank balance going down faster than a modern footballer on then pitch after minimal contact. In many cases, the tipster was in the midst of a hot streak and trying to lure as many people on board as possible before the ship went down.
You may also have created a few betting systems of your own. Everything seemed in place, yet you still lost over a long period. How can this be?
There’s every possibility that your system’s initial wins were down to nothing more than good fortune. Fortunately, there is a way to discover the truth about the betting systems you see online.
Meet Archie
The Archie Score is a method of determining the probability of your selections being based on chance or skill. In simple terms, it informs you whether that brand-new betting system of yours stands a chance of generating a long-term profit.
Far too many punters overestimate the strength of their systems. They believe that a jockey’s excellent win rate on heavy ground at Kempton is down to the rider’s uncanny knack of knowing how to ride horses on such Going. However, it could just as easily be due to a series of random events. If it is, your system will eventually start to crumble.
Originally called the chi-square test, it was adapted to horse racing and called the Archie test. You can also use it in football.
You may have read some complicated content regarding the chi-square test, which is enough to put most people off! I promise you; I’ll keep things as simple as possible!
Not only that, Predictology does all the hard work and calculations for you through our “Extended Analysis” tool. It takes into account Archie Scores, A/e Values, bet volume, strike rate, ROI, ROC, expected winning and losing runs – plus a few bits we can’t tell you – to come up with a confidence rating for the system. So you will always be able to know whether your system has a true Edge or based on “luck”
What the Archie Score Means
Before launching into a few calculations, let’s check out what a high and low Archie score means with this table.
Archie Score |
Likelihood of Chance |
0.3 |
58% |
0.5 |
48% |
1 |
32% |
1.5 |
22% |
2 |
16% |
2.5 |
11% |
3 |
8% |
4 |
5% |
5 |
3% |
6 |
1% |
8.5 |
<1% |
As you can see, the higher the Archie Score, the lower the likelihood that the selections are down to chance. A winning system with a score of 7.6, for instance, is extremely likely to be due to skill, as it is 1% likely that it is down to chance. In contrast, a score of less than 1 means a high chance that luck is involved.
Then again, if you have a good system in theory but it operates at a loss, you don’t need to toss it in the bin if it has a low Archie Score. It is potentially a sign that you’ve been unlucky to this point. Additionally, there is further analysis that you can complete, such as a Monte Carlo Simulation, which can go even deeper into your systems merits – more on this is a future article.
The Formula & a Simple Calculation
The Archie formula is as follows:
Bets x (Winners – Expected Winners)^{2}
^{_________________________________________________________}
Expected Winners x (Bets – Expected Winners)
Here is a basic example involving seven bets. Calculating the Archie score only requires the decimal odds of the bets, so you can get the probability of winning and the A/E (expected winner) value.
Decimal Odds |
Probability of a Win |
3.25 |
0.377 |
4.00 |
0.25 |
1.80 |
0.555 |
8.00 |
0.125 |
11.00 |
0.091 |
6.00 |
0.167 |
2.25 |
0.444 |
Using our formula, let’s find out the Archie score. First, let’s calculate the expected winners. We do this by adding up the probabilities. Overall, we would expect 2.009 winners from those seven bets. Let’s assume we had 3 winners from the above.
7 x (3 – 2.009)^{2}
^{__________________}
2.009 x (7 – 2.009)
Overall, the Archie Score of this system is 0.69, which isn’t great news. It suggests a probability of over 40% that these results are down to chance.
Let’s Analyse One of Jon’s Systems!
Jon will surely be reading this in a cool, calm, and collected demeanour. I recently wrote about his Lay the Draw system, which ticks every box for a successful high strike rate betting system. Or does it? Let’s see what Archie has to say.
The Lay the Draw spreadsheet is slightly ahead of the main page updating with 5,056 bets made to date. There is more than enough information here to give an accurate Archie score.
When analysing betting systems, the more data, and wagers you have, the better. You won’t find many instances of someone offering proof of over 5,000 bets in a system!
5,056 x (3,863 – 3,753)^{2}
^{____________________________________}
3,753 x (5,056 – 3,753)
Jon can rest easy! His Lay the Draw system has an Archie score of 12.5. This means there is less than a 0.1% chance that the system is based on chance. It is not a surprising result. The system has consistently performed well for over 5,000 bets. With any profitable system over a huge number of bets, there is little possibility of it being due to a fluke.
Final Thoughts on the Archie Score
If you wonder whether a betting system you are interested in is worth your time and effort, try to calculate its Archie score. If it shows a rather low number, you should do a double-take and consider choosing something else.
No matter what any tipster says, a hot streak doesn’t last nearly as long as you think, and the subsequent cold streak of a flawed system will wipe out your profits, and then some.
And, Lastly, do remember to use the in-built system grader under “extended analysis” which will do all the Archie Calculations and more on your behalf.
Looking For More?
Why not check out some of our most popular posts, including:
> How to profit on the Under 2.5 goals market
> Using Artificial Intelligence To Find Winning Bets
> Advanced Lay The Draw Strategies
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